Transformation and Future Vision of the Electric Power Industry Looking Ahead to a World After the End of Carbon Neutrality Momentum — Part I

June 2026 Senior Expert Shigeki Okuyama
Driven by a sharp increase in electricity demand, the electric power industry has once again entered a growth trajectory. At the same time, carbon neutrality (CN) initiatives are advancing at a rapid pace. Given the limited time remaining until 2050, there is no longer room to postpone discussions on “realistic CN measures.” On the other hand, when CN momentum eventually settles down, will the electric power industry be able to respond smoothly and without backtracking to the new social demands it will face? This article looks ahead to the world after the end of CN momentum and re-examines the initiatives currently underway. It then considers what kinds of strategies will prove effective for the industry over the long term.

Electric Power as a Growth Industry — and as a Source of National Wealth That Holds the Fate of Other Industries

 In January 2024, projections for electricity demand across Japan suddenly shifted to an “increase.” These demand forecasts, published annually by the Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators, Japan (OCCTO), had until then followed a long-term downward trend. While this was, of course, partly attributable to advances in energy-saving technologies, it also hinted at the stagnation of the Japanese economy. Japan, once the world’s second-largest economy by GDP, was overtaken by China in 2010 and then by Germany in 2023, and now ranks fourth. Against this backdrop, the decline in electricity demand had been one of the more dispiriting indicators, evoking a sense of waning national strength.
 
 Then, in a complete turnaround, the outlook shifted to long-term demand growth…

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